The article is devoted to geomechanical research in wellbore stability analysis area. It’s related to solid production prediction and maintaining borehole zone in stable conditions during recovery. The research attempts to answer the question – what the bottom hole pressure should we use (and could we decrease it) to avoid uncontrolled solid production and wellbore collapse. This need is often associated with maintaining production at a planned level for economic reasons. The main tool in such analysis is a qualitatively constructed 1D geomechanical model (1D MEM – Mechanical Earth Model). This article presents a methodology which allows to predict of borehole zone criticality and to define allowable and critical drawdown pressure.