Water shut-off treatment efficiency forecasting in the context of Yamburgskoe oil-gas condensate field

Abstract

Method of selection of well-candidates and forecasting of water shutoff treatment efficiency in the context of Yamburgskoe oil, gas and condensate field (YOGCF) is introduced in this paper. The main purpose of this research is development of method of selection well-candidates and forecasting of water shutoff treatment efficiency based on the reservoir characterization and technological parameters while water shut-off works. Research tasks: Water shut-off works efficiency criteria selection and making its economic-mathematical model; The most significant factors of efficiency water-shutoff works detecting (based on mathematical model); Forming of series with wells for analysis; Mathematical model application for forecasting water shut-off treatment efficiency. Modern methods of data analysis (correlation analysis, regression multiple factor analysis) are used in this research. Analysis of water shut-off activities in YOGCF’s production gas wells in 2014 has been made. As a result, the most significant factors of water shut-off works efficiency have been selected. Researcher fitted mathematical model of water shut-off works efficiency assessment based on profitability criteria from incremental ultimate natural gas recovery. Obtained model is statistically significant on 95% confidence level (alpha = 0.05) and can be used in water shut-off works efficiency forecasting. Analysis of water shut-off works efficiency in production gas wells of YOGCF revealed probable economic effect from implementation of this method amounted to more than 150 million rubles per year (in case with 33 wet gas wells of Cenomanian gas deposit of YOGCF in 2014) because of more correct well-candidates selection.