A systematic approach to the selection of the optimal capacity for liquid hydrocarbons offloading infrastructure and the sequence of exploration stages of a group of prospects

This paper validates and establishes the concept that the optimality of the decision on the timing of exploration, development and production stages for each field, as well as the performance of the combined transport infrastructure, may depend on the results of a specific scenario at one of the objects under consideration, as exemplified by three individual fields at different stages of development and with individual production and economic parameters. Nevertheless, by varying the values of the required parameters (e.g., shipping terminal capacity), we can determine their values that will result in maximizing expected profit from the project in any of the possible scenarios. The models and methods developed within this research represent a systemic approach to resolving the issue, and can be applied to developing the optimal strategy for additional study and development of the cluster of neighboring fields.

conceptual engineering, uncertainties, systematic approach, portfolio optimization, robust management, robust control, genetic algorithm, Monte-Carlo simulation, decision analysis

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