Improving the accuracy of estimating hydrocarbon reserves of appraisal well and exploratory wells according to the PRMS classification

Abstract

Assessment of potential reserves when planning exploration wells is carried out under conditions of great uncertainty and high risks. In the SPE-PRMS system, the difference between uncertainties and risks is very well shown. This system requests rather strict requirements for accounting for uncertainty. The PRMS system contains various approaches to reserves assessment: The deterministic method – is the main one in the examination of reserves. The probabilistic method is the most suitable when evaluating HC in the early stages of project implementation. The use of several types of assessment in the aggregate helps to increase the accuracy of the assessment and reduce geological risks. In order to improve the accuracy of reserves estimation in the planning of exploration, it is proposed to combine the deterministic and probabilistic methods. The combination of these two methods will provide an opportunity to ensure mutual verification of the reliability of the estimates and get a better estimate of the trap reserves.