Full-probabilistic evaluation of a multilayer field under high uncertainty terms

Abstract

The structure that was not confirmed by exploration drilling was marked as part of perspective area evaluation.

In terms of different saturation types of similar age sediments in this region and plays with oil rims, the goal was set to hold the full-probabilistic geological and economical evaluation of the field.

Aim. The present work aims at full-probabilistic 3D geological and simulation modeling. It was necessary to get a number of production profiles for economic indicators estimation and to determine the expediency of full-scale development of the considered trap.

Materials and methods. 3D geological and later simulation modeling was used with the whole range of geological and reservoir parameters’ uncertainties in the study. The calculation was carried out in Petrel and tNavigator software.

Results. The result of the investigation is 300 possible geological cases of the field. On this basis, simulation models were constructed, on which production profiles were calculated using algorithms for automatic calculation of the well schedule. Further, the distribution of the net present value (NPV) of each result was determined.

Conclusions. In this study, a theoretical algorithm for a full-probabilistic evaluation was structured into a practical guide for conducting this type of estimation. Also, the necessary Workflow, tools for automatic wells placement, and field commissioning planning, ready for replication, were developed.