Анализ конкурентоспособности технологий CCUS: технологическая готовность и экономика

Цель. Рассмотреть технико-экономические параметры технологий производства CCUS и определить привлекательные рыночные ниши.

Материалы и методы. Был проведен анализ технологической цепочки CCUS с позиции уровня технологического развития. Далее в наиболее развитых сегментах были проанализированы уровни затрат для каждого сегмента технологической цепочки.

Результаты. Анализ стадий технологической готовности CCUS технологий показал, что большая часть этих технологий по состоянию на 2021 г. находится на демонстрационной стадии или на стадии большого прототипа

Анализ затрат по всей цепочке добавленной стоимости CCUS демонстрирует широкую вариативность среди изученных источников литературы и идентифицирует этап захвата СО₂ как самый дорогостоящий этап цепочки CCUS. Он демонстрирует внушительный диапазон цен на СО₂, на сегодня он составляет от 20 до 450 долл./т СО₂. Отметим недостаток данных по конкретным процессам и технологиям захвата. Заключение. В 2020 г. средняя цена СО₂ составила менее 10 долл./т СО₂, однако в ряде стран, например в Швейцарии, Финляндии, Швеции, Норвегии, Канаде, Франции и Корее, цена на СО₂ уже сегодня дает возможность некоторым CCUS-проектам достигать порога рентабельности. Проведенный авторами анализ технологий на уровне технологической готовности TRL 9-11 также показывает, что уже сейчас существуют определенные отрасли, в которых технологии CCUS могут помочь в декарбонизации, причем для части этих отраслей (например, переработка природного газа и производство удобрений) затраты по всей цепочке добавленной стоимости начинаются с 20-25 долларов за тонну.

Наиболее перспективными направлениями в данный момент является применение CCUS в химической промышленности, черной металлургии, добыче природного газа и на угольных электростанциях. Отметим, что черная металлургия и химическая промышленность — это те отрасли, где труднее всего применить какие-то альтернативные методы глубокой декарбонизации.

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