The impact of assessing the probability of geological success on investment decisions
https://doi.org/10.24887/2587-7399-2019-4-14-19
Abstract
Geological chance of success (gCoS) is one of the most important parameters affecting the efficiency of the exploration project. the article the features of the methodology for evaluating gCoS indicator have been analyzed. On a case study authors show that even insignificant change one of the risk factors can change the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of the project by almost 100%.
To improve the accuracy of estimates of exploration investment projects, the gCoS assessment methodology needs further development, in particular, clarification of risk matrices for all factors on basis of growing statistics; development of tools for analyzing the confirmability of the gCoS forecast by region; distribution of regional criteria for geological success, etc. An actual task is to develop an IT-solution for rapid analysis of the economic efficiency of the project and assessment of its sensitivity to geological uncertainties.
Apart from the technological effect, such an IT solution will be able to increase the level of competence of geologists engaged in the analysis of geological uncertainties and risks that is very important for a balanced assessment of projects.
Keywords
About the Authors
M. G. Dymochkina
Gazpromneft NTC LLC
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Saint-Petersburg
V. A. Lezhneva
Gazpromneft NTC LLC
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Saint-Petersburg
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Review
For citations:
Dymochkina M.G., Lezhneva V.A. The impact of assessing the probability of geological success on investment decisions. PROneft. Professionally about Oil. 2019;(4):14-19. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24887/2587-7399-2019-4-14-19
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