Forecasting the operation of wells in the Bazhenov formation based on a modified dynamic material balance model

Background. Predicting the dynamics of the Bazhenov formation is an important task. Traditionally, it is carried out using geological and hydrodynamic modeling, i. e., solving the direct problem of hydrodynamics.

However, for shale reservoirs, this approach is not possible, oil production is a derivative of geology to a lesser extent than technology. Industrial net production rates can be obtained from non-reservoirs in the usual sense. The system of technogenic fractures forms a reservoir associated with oil-saturated rock and the properties of such a system are described by too many parameters with high uncertainty and a number of assumptions [3–7]. On the other hand, there are forecasting methods based on solving the inverse problem of hydrodynamics. Having a sufficient amount of development data, it is possible to predict the dynamics of work based on statistical dependencies [9] or proxy material balance models.

The purpose of this work. The purpose of this work was to create a convenient methodology for calculating oil production from the reservoirs of the Bazhenov formation.

Methodology. The paper proposes and tests a method for predicting the dynamics of oil, liquid and gas production for wells in the Bazhenov formation based on a modification of the CRM dynamic material balance model (Capacity-Resistive Models — volume-resistive model).

Results. The method was tested when calculating the technological indicators of development for the object of one of the fields located in the KhMAO and showed its efficiency, which allows us to recommend it as a basis for drawing up project documents as an alternative to building a hydrodynamic model (GDM).

material balance equation, Shale formations, Bazhenov formation, the calculation of oil reserves, CRM, capacitance-resistive models

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